The chances of Texas-sized takeover in College Football Playoff

BY GAVIN PATRICK

Sports Editor

It’s a good time to be a Texas college football fan. In fact, there hasn’t been a better time with this many Texas teams in the mix for the postseason at once.

Whether you root for all of them, one of them or none of them, it’s time to step back and assess what the top teams have to offer, and still need to prove, before the postseason hits.

In the young era of the 12-team playoff, and in the previous four-team format, the most teams that have been selected from the Lone Star State is… one. This year, we could see up to four Texas teams in the College Football Playoff—Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas and North Texas—with three having a real chance to make hay.

Now, judging by the audience of this publication, I assume one already knows plenty about the best FCS team from Texas—Tarleton State—and how they, too, can make a run in the postseason.

I’ve already written plenty about the Texans this season, and since they aren’t in the FBS playoff bucket (at least yet), I’ll leave them out of this particular conversation. But Tarleton certainly adds to the story of what has been a phenomenal year for college football in Texas. (Plus, they’re finally getting their due outside the Texan News Service.)

Imagine all the local sports anchors with so much to talk about on the nightly news right now. It’s a fun time. So without further ado, let’s run down the résumés and break down playoff seeding scenarios for the four best teams in Texas.

Texas A&M

Overall record: 9-0

Conference record: 6-0

CFP ranking: 3rd

Résumé: Some say A&M is the most complete team in the country and should be ranked even higher than No. 3. And, really, it’s hard to argue against them — besides the fact that we’re just not used to seeing this level of dominance from the Aggies.

Their win at Notre Dame remains one of the best wins in the country, and their convincing road wins over SEC opponents LSU and Missouri, who were ranked at the time, will sit well with the committee.

The Aggies have won every which way: big, small, ugly, from behind. They’ve shown they can play on any stage. Their next big test will be the Longhorns the final week of the regular season, which could decide if they should be favored to win their first conference title since 1998.

Playoff scenarios: Should the Aggies win out and claim the SEC title, there’s a strong case to be made that they should be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs.

If Ohio State loses to Michigan for the fifth (!) straight year, this certainly becomes likely. Even if Indiana does nothing to hurt their case as a top two team, A&M would have a better collection of wins over stronger opponents. And, yeah, SEC bias.

If A&M loses to Texas on Black Friday and in the SEC Championship and finishes as a two-loss non-conference champion, they’d likely still make the cut. But this scenario shows the Aggies are far from a done deal. They need a strong finish to convince the selection committee that they should remain in position for a first-round bye.

Texas Tech

Overall record: 9-1

Conference record: 6-1

CFP ranking: 6th

Résumé: For once in what feels like a lifetime, Texas Tech is actually living up to expectations. Their aggression from the portal is (literally) paying off, and they look to have an easy path to the Big 12 title.

By beating down an undefeated BYU team last week, without playing their A-game, and whipping Utah early in the year by 24, the Red Raiders showed there’s a significant gap between them and the rest of their conference.

The Arizona State loss is the one blimp on the radar. Dare I say, it drew rumblings of “same ole’ Tech” amongst the fanbase. Tech has lost to teams they shouldn’t have in the past (except this one), and they won’t fully beat the allegations until they win a playoff game. 

But in all, things are looking up for Texas Tech to be a serious threat to most teams in the field.

Playoff scenarios: Assuming the Red Raiders win out, they’d be a one-loss conference champion with a case to be considered for a first-round bye.

For them to vault into the top four, they’ll likely need Alabama and Georgia to lose at least once. Or, if Texas A&M falters with their tough stretch coming up and misses out on the SEC title, Tech could potentially jump them as well.

The worst thing that could happen is if Tech drops the baby and falls to UCF or West Virginia before the Big 12 Championship. That seems unlikely. And even if they lose the Big 12, they should have enough to squeak in with two losses.

Texas

Overall record: 7-2

Conference record: 4-1

CFP ranking: 10th

Résumé: It’s not the season the Longhorns expected, but the ultimate goal is still within reach if they play their best football down the stretch.

Texas has actually bounced back well from the Ohio State loss in the opener, all things considered. Arch Manning is just younger than we thought, partially why the team needed overtime to knock off Kentucky and Mississippi State, two middling SEC opponents.

The defense has been cracking as of late, too, allowing 21 points in the fourth quarter to Vanderbilt and 38 to Mississippi State. But Manning is finally getting into a rhythm that could put Texas in contention with anyone.

If the D can regroup and perform how they did against the Sooners and Buckeyes, this is a dangerous team.

Playoff scenarios: The Horns are on the bubble with two losses already, but they’re also the team with the opportunity to impress the committee the most in the final weeks of the regular season.

This is a true boom or bust case. If Texas can beat both Georgia and Texas A&M, they would have two of the best wins in the country and become a shoo-in for the playoffs.

If they lose both games, it’s over. If they split, that’s where things get really interesting. Would a three-loss Texas team be impressive enough to hold off Oklahoma, a team the Longhorns beat, if the Sooners win out? Or even a two-loss Michigan team – if they beat Ohio State again?

Really, it depends how competitive Texas looks in a potential loss for that to be a discussion. But if the top teams avoid upsets and push the other bubble teams out of the picture, Texas could be two wins away from their third-straight CFP berth.

North Texas

Overall record: 8-1

Conference record: 4-1

CFP ranking: Unranked

Résumé: Who saw this coming before the season? The Mean Green are having maybe their best season in program history after not having a winning record for seven years. They are the longshot of the group but deserve to be celebrated regardless.

Quarterback Drew Mestemaker is one of the best stories in college football. He has North Texas at 8-1 with the second-highest scoring offense in the nation. However, UNT does not have a win over a ranked opponent and allowed 63 points in their lone opportunity.

That game was against conference opponent South Florida, the team most likely to keep them out of the CFP. The Mean Green currently sit fourth in the American Athletic Conference and need some help to clinch the final playoff spot.

Playoff scenarios: If UNT wins their remaining games, as likely double-digits favorites, they could secure a spot in the American championship (pending very complicated tiebreakers) against either South Florida, Navy, Tulane, East Carolina or Memphis.

The Mean Green would much rather play Navy, a team they beat handily two weeks ago, than South Florida, who’s currently ranked 24th. They also could use a Navy win over USF this weekend to increase their chances of hosting the game.

The highest ranked Group of Five champion makes the CFP. The teams with the best chances, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor, currently are South Florida (40%), James Madison (36%) and North Texas (30%). It’d be a great story, and difficult to understand, if the math shakes out just right.